How long do you think this will take?

[Bitoko]

If i save before picking my starter in Sapphire and reset till i get a shiny? and will it work? also, i heard that if your starter is shiney the letters are gold and not white? anyone ever get one?

[Alienshroom]

If i save before picking my starter in Sapphire and reset till i get a shiny? and will it work? also, i heard that if your starter is shiney the letters are gold and not white? anyone ever get one?

Yes it will work i have never gotten one and you would most likely get one around your 40s

[Bitoko]

do you know if the gold lettering is true?... and if i hatch eggs how long will that take?

[Kenneth]

And if you didn't know, lugia1111 meant your age The eggs will probably take long as well. Maybe even longer.

[Alienshroom]

do you know if the gold lettering is true?... and if i hatch eggs how long will that take?
Yes it is but you will tell its a shiney by its color
And if you didn't know, lugia1111 meant your age The eggs will probably take long as well. Maybe even longer.

Thanks that is what i ment :wink:

[Bitoko]

yeah, i knew what he meant... i had a shiny golbat but my sister erased my game :( and i want to try for a starter

[Bitoko]

Yes it is but you will tell its a shiney by its color


Thanks that is what i ment :wink:

I just want to shorten the length by not having to put it out, and to see which one is shiny out of the three

[Pokemon Trainer Sarah]

There's a 1 in 8192 chance of getting a Shiny, so in theory, if you restart 8192 times, you'll come across a Shiny Pokemon once. Of course, you could be extremely lucky and come across it quickly, or unlucky and not come across it even after 8192 restarts. ^^;

Good luck.

As for the gold letters, I've never heard anything like that before, but then again, I've never found a Shiny, so I don't know.

[pokemaster2000]

nah you dont get gold letter with i shiny...ive had a green spinda..i should know..

[Alienshroom]

There's a 1 in 8192 chance of getting a Shiny, so in theory, if you restart 8192 times, you'll come across a Shiny Pokemon once. Of course, you could be extremely lucky and come across it quickly, or unlucky and not come across it even after 8192 restarts. ^^;

Good luck.

As for the gold letters, I've never heard anything like that before, but then again, I've never found a Shiny, so I don't know.

nope each time you see one you have a 1 in 8192 it dont lower each time so you could do it 8192 times and still not get one.

[Bitoko]

nope each time you see one you have a 1 in 8192 it dont lower each time so you could do it 8192 times and still not get one.


yeah... im in AP stats so i know a lot about this kind of stuff.... and if you did do it 8192 times its still a good chance of it happening, even though i dont know if i have the patience lol.

nah you dont get gold letter with i shiny...ive had a green spinda..i should know..

No i dont mean the pokemon name in battle, i meant in the Birch's bag where it tells you the pokemon, i heard that in the bag the letters are gold instead of white, i had a pink crobat lol

[pokemaster2000]

lol its not who has the patience to do it its who has the time to do it :crackup:

[Alienshroom]

yeah... im in AP stats so i know a lot about this kind of stuff.... and if you did do it 8192 times its still a good chance of it happening, even though i dont know if i have the patience lol.

Lol trust me you dont:wink:

[pokemaster2000]

o im not sure about that...:ermm:

[Bitoko]

Lol trust me you dont:wink:

well.... technicaly no, but its a better chance than trying just one time... in reality you would have a 1 X (8192 X 8192) chance which would be a 1 in 67108864 chance in getting one.

[Alienshroom]

well.... technicaly no, but its a better chance than trying just one time... in reality you would have a 1 X (8192 X 8192) chance which would be a 1 in 67108864 chance in getting one.

ya but is it really worth it?

[Bitoko]

it might be...:wink: maybe when D&P come out i can find someone that has a shiny that im looking for and trade lol

[Alienshroom]

it might be...:wink: maybe when D&P come out i can find someone that has a shiny that im looking for and trade lol

thats your best bet id say

[Bitoko]

cant wait for it to come out just for that now lol, but im still going to put a couple hours in and try for it lol

[Alienshroom]

cant wait for it to come out just for that now lol, but im still going to put a couple hours in and try for it lol

Ya D/P is killing me i cant wait it will be so great

[houndoom200]

ive got a brown shiny machamp on pokemon ruby, got it by accident in feiry path,(machop) thought it was a glitch

[uberpokemonx]

It's a question of odds and luck. You could get it the second try, or it might take you 80,000. It could take anywhere from five minutes to 6 months (approx.). There is no straight "this long."

[mistdragon]

It's a question of odds and luck. You could get it the second try, or it might take you 80,000. It could take anywhere from five minutes to 6 months (approx.). There is no straight "this long."
6 months? Psshhhhh, I played for 1 year, got none. Lol.

[Myst3rio565]

Spinda is already green....and I own a Shiny Tentacool (I was just surfing, and I just came across it), the Number of the Pokemon is Gold...

[Muhahahahaz]

Ok, so since most of you seem to lack any skill in probability, I will compile some data for you here.

Number of Trials | Probability of Success
-----------------|--------------------------
1 | 0.0122%
|
10 | 0.122%
|
100 | 1.21%
|
1,000 | 11.5%
|
2,000 | 21.7%
|
3,000 | 30.7%
|
4,000 | 38.6%
|
5,000 | 45.7%
|
5,678 | 50.0% <--- Equal chances here!
|
7,500 | 60.0%
|
10,000 | 70.5%
|
18,862 | 90.0% <--- Getting there...
|
37,724 | 99.0% <--- Slowly...
|
56,585 | 99.9% <--- So close!
|
100,000 | 99.9995% <--- Were you this unlucky?
|
1,000,000 | 99.99999999999999999999 <--- Seriously!
| 99999999999999999999
| 99999999999%


Basically, Probability of success = 1 - (8191/8192)^n, where n is the number of trials.

As you can see, it would take 5,678 tries just to have a 50% chance of a shiny starter pokemon. So you are "more likely than not" to succeed after 5,678 tries (since a more exact percentage is 50.0005%). Even if you could only try once per minute, this would take "only" 95 hours ~ 4 days. The number of hours is more relevant, of course, since you probably couldn't actually play for 4 days straight. If you needed to keep going, however, 125 hours would give you 60%, 167 hours for 70%, and a whopping 314 hours for 90%.

Since I don't know how long it would really take for each trial, these numbers aren't exact, but if you found out it took x minutes, then just multiply these numbers by x. Like if it only really takes you 30 seconds = 0.5 minutes, then just take half of everything, like ~47 hours for 50%, simple enough. I think the best you could do is 30 seconds, but I don't have RSE, only LG, which may take a different amout of time.

Also, I noticed some of you say stuff like "I played for x months/years...", etc. But how many HOURS of actual GAME TIME was that? Certainly some people barely play games at all, whereas others will play them constantly, not to mention that some will play other games as well.

So there you have it. If you are dedicated enough to this task, it can probably be done in a month or two, where dedicated means constantly turning your GBA/DS On and Off for about 3 hours a day.:tongue:


Oh, and if there was any confusion, I was talking about only checking the starter you want. I'm not exactly sure if you can tell whether it's a shiny pokemon or not before confirming your selection, but this does not change my table above. Just count each pokemon you check as one trial.

[frondew]

thats pretty kool, thx it woukd take a long time i guess i might try to get one but not for to long......

[dragonite rulez]

there is no higher chance

[silent pokemon master]

these look like good numbers thanks i have a shiny starter though and no here i'll confirm it there is no gold lettering and also i might have not noticed it crap i want another shiny starter!

[Bitoko]

Ok, so since most of you seem to lack any skill in probability, I will compile some data for you here.

Number of Trials | Probability of Success
-----------------|--------------------------
1 | 0.0122%
|
10 | 0.122%
|
100 | 1.21%
|
1,000 | 11.5%
|
2,000 | 21.7%
|
3,000 | 30.7%
|
4,000 | 38.6%
|
5,000 | 45.7%
|
5,678 | 50.0% <--- Equal chances here!
|
7,500 | 60.0%
|
10,000 | 70.5%
|
18,862 | 90.0% <--- Getting there...
|
37,724 | 99.0% <--- Slowly...
|
56,585 | 99.9% <--- So close!
|
100,000 | 99.9995% <--- Were you this unlucky?
|
1,000,000 | 99.99999999999999999999 <--- Seriously!
| 99999999999999999999
| 99999999999%


Basically, Probability of success = 1 - (8191/8192)^n, where n is the number of trials.

As you can see, it would take 5,678 tries just to have a 50% chance of a shiny starter pokemon. So you are "more likely than not" to succeed after 5,678 tries (since a more exact percentage is 50.0005%). Even if you could only try once per minute, this would take "only" 95 hours ~ 4 days. The number of hours is more relevant, of course, since you probably couldn't actually play for 4 days straight. If you needed to keep going, however, 125 hours would give you 60%, 167 hours for 70%, and a whopping 314 hours for 90%.

Since I don't know how long it would really take for each trial, these numbers aren't exact, but if you found out it took x minutes, then just multiply these numbers by x. Like if it only really takes you 30 seconds = 0.5 minutes, then just take half of everything, like ~47 hours for 50%, simple enough. I think the best you could do is 30 seconds, but I don't have RSE, only LG, which may take a different amout of time.

Also, I noticed some of you say stuff like "I played for x months/years...", etc. But how many HOURS of actual GAME TIME was that? Certainly some people barely play games at all, whereas others will play them constantly, not to mention that some will play other games as well.

So there you have it. If you are dedicated enough to this task, it can probably be done in a month or two, where dedicated means constantly turning your GBA/DS On and Off for about 3 hours a day.:tongue:


Oh, and if there was any confusion, I was talking about only checking the starter you want. I'm not exactly sure if you can tell whether it's a shiny pokemon or not before confirming your selection, but this does not change my table above. Just count each pokemon you check as one trial.

yes, but they are each independent trials, doing it once does not mean that you have a better chance doing it the next time, its still a 1 in 8192 chance of getting one even after youve done it 1000000 times.

[Muhahahahaz]

yes, but they are each independent trials, doing it once does not mean that you have a better chance doing it the next time, its still a 1 in 8192 chance of getting one even after youve done it 1000000 times.

Well... yes and no. Of course each individual probability will be 1 in 8192, just like flipping a coin and getting heads is 50%. But getting 10 heads in a row is only a 1 in 1024 (2^10) chance, since there are 1023 ways (all possiblities, besides the one) to get something else.

With the shiny pokemon, it's the same thing. Once you know what has happened the first 1000000000 times, the next time will still have a chance of 1 in 8192. But before you have even started, there is no way to know what will happen, so chances are you will get one much before 1,000,000 trials (remember, that's 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 9999%!). There are never any guarantees, but after a certain point, it would be like winning the lottery if you hadn't gotten one... except that you were really unlucky, rather than really lucky, lol.


Edit: Speaking of things that take a long time, I once trained in the Viridian Forest on my Blue Version for over 100 hours! This must have been about 7 or 8 years ago, and when I was done I had not only 6, but actually 9 pokemon over level 30! I still remember it... Blastoise L36, Pikachu L36, Pidgeot L36, Butterfree L32, Fearow L32, Raticate L32 (those were in my party) as well as Beedrill L32, Nidorino L32, and Nidorina L32. I'm not quite sure what compelled me to do this... but I guess I just really enjoyed leveling up a lot. Pokemon was pretty new back then, so I still thought that Nidorino and Nidorina would evolve at level 32, lol. Hence the reason I leveled them up, but I'm not sure why I trained Beedrill though...

Actually, that probably wasn't a good idea (aside from the fact that it took so long) since the bugs in that forest were probably giving me some crappy EVs... RBY did have EVs, right? Anyways, that took forever... so I'm sure someone will have enough patience to get a shiny starter, lol.

[Bitoko]

Well... yes and no. Of course each individual probability will be 1 in 8192, just like flipping a coin and getting heads is 50%. But getting 10 heads in a row is only a 1 in 1024 (2^10) chance, since there are 1023 ways (all possiblities, besides the one) to get something else.

With the shiny pokemon, it's the same thing. Once you know what has happened the first 1000000000 times, the next time will still have a chance of 1 in 8192. But before you have even started, there is no way to know what will happen, so chances are you will get one much before 1,000,000 trials (remember, that's 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 9999%!). There are never any guarantees, but after a certain point, it would be like winning the lottery if you hadn't gotten one... except that you were really unlucky, rather than really lucky, lol.


Edit: Speaking of things that take a long time, I once trained in the Viridian Forest on my Blue Version for over 100 hours! This must have been about 7 or 8 years ago, and when I was done I had not only 6, but actually 9 pokemon over level 30! I still remember it... Blastoise L36, Pikachu L36, Pidgeot L36, Butterfree L32, Fearow L32, Raticate L32 (those were in my party) as well as Beedrill L32, Nidorino L32, and Nidorina L32. I'm not quite sure what compelled me to do this... but I guess I just really enjoyed leveling up a lot. Pokemon was pretty new back then, so I still thought that Nidorino and Nidorina would evolve at level 32, lol. Hence the reason I leveled them up, but I'm not sure why I trained Beedrill though...

Actually, that probably wasn't a good idea (aside from the fact that it took so long) since the bugs in that forest were probably giving me some crappy EVs... RBY did have EVs, right? Anyways, that took forever... so I'm sure someone will have enough patience to get a shiny starter, lol.

yeah you are right in that one, and right now i am trying for a shiny rayquaza, have 500+ restarts so far, not gonna stop till i get one

[grovyle1221]

Good luck! I found a shiny swablu that went missing, its with my gameboy that is nowhere 2 b found... 4 now i just play sapphire, which i have a pathetic pokedex in.. :oops:

[Bitoko]

Good luck! I found a shiny swablu that went missing, its with my gameboy that is nowhere 2 b found... 4 now i just play sapphire, which i have a pathetic pokedex in.. :oops:


ah, thats to bad, good luck finding it. Ive restarted about 1500 times now, i do about 500 a day lol

[Medicham heeya]

If I had paitence I would test it out.:P

[shiny hunter]

yes the pokemon number is gold and where it is pictured is a light yellow color as well so say for exp. you get a shiny bulbasaur 001 will be in gold

[1Team Power1 Brett]

I have a shiny electrike whom I cloned many times (for the item it was holding) and if I level it up to a manectric, I would technically have two shinies; right? The gold letter is false and it IS possable to get a shiny starter by saving in front of the pokeballs and restarting untill a shiny is found. The chances of a shiny starter showing up is 1/8156 and the chances of you finding the starter you want that is shiny is 1/24416 and the chances are EVEN WORSE if you are looking for a female starter. You have better chances of finding a shiny starter are slim to none, but if you purchase a brand new pokemon emerald cartrage, you have a chance of finding a shiny in the wild. When I recently bought my pokemon emerald, I thought I might be able to find a wild shiny at least once, which I did. I'm not saying you have a better chance of find a shiny if you buy a new game, but it did work for me on my first try.

[spr bhav]

If i save before picking my starter in Sapphire and reset till i get a shiny? and will it work? also, i heard that if your starter is shiney the letters are gold and not white? anyone ever get one?

meh, 1 day non stop playing :eek:

[shiny hunter]

I have a shiny electrike whom I cloned many times (for the item it was holding) and if I level it up to a manectric, I would technically have two shinies; right? The gold letter is false and it IS possable to get a shiny starter by saving in front of the pokeballs and restarting untill a shiny is found. The chances of a shiny starter showing up is 1/8156 and the chances of you finding the starter you want that is shiny is 1/24416 and the chances are EVEN WORSE if you are looking for a female starter. You have better chances of finding a shiny starter are slim to none, but if you purchase a brand new pokemon emerald cartrage, you have a chance of finding a shiny in the wild. When I recently bought my pokemon emerald, I thought I might be able to find a wild shiny at least once, which I did. I'm not saying you have a better chance of find a shiny if you buy a new game, but it did work for me on my first try.


Ok the pokemon number is a light yellow not gold better now!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[dragonite rulez]

its gona take a while it might take millions and how can you makesure you can cath him

[celebihunter]

there is gold lettering but not on the starters but when you look at your pokemons summary,where it says there name it will be in gold

[BrassIttoTower]

There's a 1 in 8192 chance of getting a Shiny, so in theory, if you restart 8192 times, you'll come across a Shiny Pokemon once. Of course, you could be extremely lucky and come across it quickly, or unlucky and not come across it even after 8192 restarts. ^^;

Good luck.

As for the gold letters, I've never heard anything like that before, but then again, I've never found a Shiny, so I don't know.

Uh, no. Your chances are still 1 in 8192 if you restart 1 in 8192 times. It's all based on luck, and is the reason why it is so rare. If it was 1 in 8192 battles you had yo do, then people could predict when they got a shiny and what they wanted it too be. So yeah, it's not possible that way.

[mistdragon]

Uh, no. Your chances are still 1 in 8192 if you restart 1 in 8192 times. It's all based on luck, and is the reason why it is so rare. If it was 1 in 8192 battles you had yo do, then people could predict when they got a shiny and what they wanted it too be. So yeah, it's not possible that way.
Brass is right...

If we could predict, you can save on your 8191th battle and fly to the place where the Shiny you want would appear... Lol...